You cannot predict the future

Philip Thomas K.

12 May 21


It is obvious, but we still do it anyways. There have been many theories put forth to explain why this is the case.

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb goes into a deep dive into this exact phenomenon. I gathered from it that rather than it being one reason, it is a combination of many reasons and theories that explain why we do this.

Furthermore, you cannot repeatedly attempt to predict an outcome, because the environment has changed. Anyone who is an expert at anything will tell you that they only became an expert by practicing many times, and observing the feedback.

This means that nobody can possibly be an expert at predicting the future. This is why the argument can be made that you are better off investing your time and money in being more adaptable, rather than attempting to predict the future.

Personally, I find that any new skill I have picked up has shown itself to be increasingly useful over time. I would otherwise have never known the value of such a skill had I not picked it up. I can recall quite a few incidents where my ability to hand sew cloth has not only helped me, but others as well.

The same goes for learning a new language (be it programming or not), cooking, diving, etc. My only real advice is to put your time into skills that have real experts, for example: woodworking, metalworking; not stuff like: gambling, homeopathy, etc.

That last line probably irks some, but to them I say this: consider the possibility that they are only experts because they were lucky, does that still make them experts?

Best Regards,